One of the most significant ratings changes is the special election for Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District, which is now rated as a "toss-up." A recent poll showed Democrat Conor Lamb holding a slim lead against state Rep. Rick Saccone (R) in the race for the deep-red district, which Trump won by double digits in the 2016 election. A new poll, however, suggests the party might actually lose ground in the Senate.
The filings mean 78 Republican incumbents are in line to get Democratic challengers in the fall, more than three times the Democrats' number. All five states where Democrats are in trouble now show strong support for President Trump in the Axios/Survey Monkey polls. While there is plenty of bad news for Senate Democrats, a potential loss of five to six seats, the good news for Trump is that his job approval rating in the key swing states he will need to win a second term, is well above his national rating.
"The most vulnerable senators are Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester in Montana and Claire McCaskill in Missouri", according to the survey.
Dems have VERY SLIGHT LEADS in Wisconsin, Michigan and OH, however all are within a few points. "My colleague Geoffrey Skelley has been tracking these elections, which are mostly for state legislative seats but also include a handful of congressional specials, and he calculates that Democrats have been running on average 13 points ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin in the almost 90 races held so far featuring a Democrat and a Republican". Rob Kendall lives and breathes for the IN senate race, so Hammer and Nigel talked to him about the poll and how it affects Indiana.