In an extended range forecast released Thursday, scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) said they expect slightly below-average activity in the Atlantic Basin this year, with 11 named storms, of which four are expected to become hurricanes, including two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The Colorado State prediction is for 11 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
We are 55 days away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and a renowned seasonal forecaster made his early predictions.
But the forecast isn't totally certain, Klotzbach cautioned, repeating the adage that it only takes one hurricane making landfall for it to be a bad season. Out of those, his department forecasts 4 will become hurricanes, compared to the typical 6 to 7 in any given season. El Nino is always a welcome sight in the Atlantic, but stronger ones are always preferred.
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Researchers are forecasting eleven named storms. They anticipate that there's a 42 percent chance of a Category 3, 4, or 5 storm will hit somewhere along the entire US coastline in 2017. After haivng weak La Niña conditions a year ago, we have been moving towards neutral conditions.
The team predicts that 2017 hurricane activity will be about 85 percent of the average season.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. In addition to providing less fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are associated with a more stable atmosphere as well as drier air, both of which suppress organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development. The chance for a hurricane landfall on the Florida Peninsula and the East Coast of the U.S.is 24%, with 31% being the average. Instead it briefly came ashore in SC as a Category 1 hurricane. Gray (who died last year) and Dr. Klotzbach at several weather conferences over the years, and realized immediately that they were by far the smartest guys in the room.