NOAA is seeing atmospheric and oceanic conditions that increase the risk of hurricanes as we head into the peak hurricane period of August through October.
Bell also states that limited tropical weather activity in the first two months of the hurricane season, June and July, does not reflect on how the rest of the hurricane season may evolve. NOAA's hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. This updated outlook is for the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends November 30.
NOAA is also predicting 10-17 named storms, up from 9-15 in the orginal forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline, according to the NOAA. The previous outlook from May had forecast a 30% chance of an above-normal season.
These new predictions come with the end of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, which "typically suppresses" hurricane activity in the Atlantic, according to NOAA. A major hurricane is one that produces winds of 111 miles per hour or greater, which is at least category 3 hurricane.
"That's not really a factor as far as a season outlook", he said.
"This evolution, combined with the more conducive conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year". This outlook does not attempt to show how many of these storms will impact land or the United States.
There are usually about six hurricanes and three major hurricanes in an average hurricane season in the Atlantic, according to NOAA, and a year ago there were eight hurricanes during the season, including major hurricanes Michael and Florence, which hit the Carolinas.
To highlight the dangers associated with hurricanes, including storm surge and flooding, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Ready Campaign and its federal partners released high-quality videos that show the risky threat from tropical weather.